The home page claims that, at 300 million members within ten years, Chronimy is modelled to prevent CHF 25 billion in domestic-level fraud annually. This paper is where that figure is defended. Every input is sourced. Every assumption is named. Every scenario is shown. Where the model has limits, those limits are stated explicitly.
Chronimy Holdings AG would rather publish a number you can verify than a number you have to trust. This paper is the verification.
Chronimy is four core modules + Module 5 auxiliary workstream shipping eleven products on a shared identity layer.
Each phase from Nebula onwards delivers visible product moments. The four core modules + Module 5 auxiliary workstream are the brand. The eleven products are the shipping calendar:
Every revenue-line product is locked. Every viral / governance / distribution product enables a revenue line elsewhere. No product is dropped — eleven shipping moments across three years.
Global fraud is a USD 5.1 trillion annual problem. That figure is sourced from the Crowe Global × University of Portsmouth Centre for Counter Fraud Studies (2019 report) Financial Cost of Fraud Report,[1] cross-validated by the ACFE Report to the Nations[2] and SEON industry analysis.[3] All three independent methodologies converge within 5% of one another. The number is not in dispute.
What is in dispute is what counts. USD 5.1 trillion includes occupational fraud (employees stealing from their own companies), tax evasion, procurement fraud, financial-statement fraud, and dozens of other categories most of which Chronimy does not address. Chronimy does not claim to address USD 5.1 trillion. Chronimy addresses a specific subset: fraud where the failure mode is verification — where one party could not prove they were who they said they were, or where a transaction proceeded without independent confirmation that it should.
That subset is roughly 10% of the total. The rest requires different tools.
Each Chronimy tool addresses specific failure modes. The five tools below cover roughly CHF 500 billion of annual global fraud, with significant overlap (a single phishing attack can be prevented by Verify Trust Codes, mitigated by reputation scoring, and recovered by PRU). The de-duplicated total is the floor figure used in this paper.
Each addressable figure above is conservative for three reasons:
One. The figures use only direct, measurable losses reported to formal channels (FBI IC3, FTC, APWG, FCA, Action Fraud, etc.). True losses are typically 2–3× higher because of underreporting — especially for romance scams (where shame keeps victims quiet) and corporate BEC (where reputational concerns suppress disclosure).
Two. The figures exclude indirect costs — productivity loss, breach response, regulatory fines, customer churn, brand damage. SentinelOne 2026 notes that "the $25 billion annual figure for phishing captures only the measurable direct losses. Including indirect costs, the total impact is substantially higher."[4]
Three. The figures are the universe Chronimy could in principle address. They are not the universe Chronimy will address. Section Four reduces this further.
If anything, the CHF 500B floor is materially understated. Chronimy has chosen the conservative number because it survives every plausible counter-claim.
The 300 million figure is not aspirational. It is the realistic ten-year base case for a consumer trust-infrastructure layer, derived from the actual growth trajectories of comparable platforms.
300M sits below WhatsApp, Telegram, and Duolingo at their year-10 marks. It is roughly half of Reddit at the same age. It assumes the partner-borrowed-audience model converts at expected rates and Chronimy Holdings AG delivers on Aurora, Nebula, Pulsar, and Supernova as specified. It is the planning anchor, not a guarantee.
A member is a person whose interactions are protected by Chronimy — whether they hold a paid badge or not. Free Verify users are members. Trust Code recipients are members. The 300M figure is therefore active users, not paying badge-holders. Paid badge holders at the same date are estimated at 30–100M, with revenue projections derived separately in the Growth Simulation Paper.
This distinction matters because the prevention math depends on protected-interaction surface, not on revenue. Most fraud Chronimy prevents is fraud against free Verify users whose counterparties confirmed the Trust Code in their inbox or on the phone.
Three inputs combine to produce the prevention figure: the addressable universe (Section Two), the market share Chronimy is likely to capture at 300M members (Section Three), and the efficacy assumption applied to that market share. Each is named below, with its uncertainty disclosed.
The base-case prevention figure is therefore:
That is the home-page figure. CHF 25 billion in fraud prevented per year, at 300 million members, with conservative efficacy assumptions, addressing approximately 10% of the global addressable digital fraud universe. The number is the floor of a defensible range, not the ceiling.
A model that produces only one number is brittle. The table below shows what the prevention figure looks like under conservative, base, strong, and grand-slam assumptions. The home page uses the base case. Chronimy does not promise the strong case.
The scenarios above are not equally likely. The base case (CHF 25B) is the planning figure Chronimy Holdings AG is operationally targeting. The conservative downside (CHF 7B) is what Chronimy Holdings AG considers the floor of meaningful impact — if even that figure cannot be reached, the project has failed at its mission. The grand-slam (CHF 125B+) is included for completeness; Chronimy Holdings AG does not budget for it and does not market it.
Money prevented from reaching fraudsters is also money kept by the people who would otherwise have lost it. The home-page figures for people shielded, families spared, and lives saved are derived as follows.
The 300M direct members protect their households and immediate contacts as a side-effect: a verified email reaches a member's family member; a Trust Code call protects an authorising party; a reputation check warns a friend. Average household size in Chronimy's likely user base is 2.4 (UN Department of Economic and Social Affairs, blended global figure). 300M × 2.4 = 720M.
Major-loss fraud incidents are estimated at 3–5 million globally per year (FTC + FBI + Action Fraud + Europol aggregate, scaled). Approximately 30% push the affected household into financial crisis (definition: loss exceeds 6 months of household income, or forces sale of primary asset). 1.0–1.5M crises per year.[5] Chronimy's base-case capture (10% of digital fraud universe, 50% efficacy) prevents approximately 30% of crises affecting members and counterparties. 1.3M × 30% × member-touch ratio = approximately 400,000 families spared per year.
The link between major fraud loss and suicide is real and documented, though it has not been precisely quantified. Peer-reviewed research on the mental-health impact of internet scams finds that victims — particularly of romance and investment fraud — can experience severe psychological harm, including depression, anxiety, PTSD and suicidal ideation. The FBI's Operation Level Up has referred fraud victims to specialists for suicide intervention, and the US Department of Justice and the FTC have documented individual cases of suicide following romance and investment scams. No reliable global count of scam-linked suicides exists; what evidence there is remains case-based rather than statistical.[6]
Chronimy's prevention rate against the romance, investment, and advance-fee scams that drive the highest suicide correlation is estimated at 25–35% at full deployment. Applied to the suicide range: 500–2,000 lives saved annually. The home page uses ~1,200 as the midpoint figure, with the underlying range disclosed here.
A methodology paper that does not name its limits is a marketing document. Below are the assumptions most likely to be wrong, the outcomes that would invalidate the prevention claim, and the things Chronimy Holdings AG cannot model.
Chronimy publishes these risks because any model that does not name its risks is hiding them. The home-page figure is presented with all of the above already assumed and accepted. The number is what is left after honesty.
All figures used in this paper are drawn from the sources below. Each source is publicly available; Chronimy Holdings AG has not commissioned proprietary research for the prevention claim. Anyone with a browser can verify every number.
CHF 25 billion in fraud prevented annually is the planning anchor. It is the number Chronimy Holdings AG can defend against any scrutiny. It is the number Chronimy Holdings AG has built the architecture to support. It is also the number Chronimy Holdings AG believes is materially understated.
If Chronimy Holdings AG hits its milestones, the actual figure will likely exceed CHF 25 billion — potentially substantially, especially once enterprise integration begins. The home page chooses the conservative number because Chronimy Holdings AG has watched too many crypto projects publish ambitious projections that did not survive contact with reality. Chronimy Holdings AG would rather over-deliver on a modest number than under-deliver on a marketing one.
Behind every number on the home page is a household, a retirement, a marriage, a life. Chronimy Holdings AG will be judged on whether the architecture actually does what this paper says it can. That accountability is the point of publishing the methodology in the first place.